Polls in New Hampshire
By Steffen Schmidt
In the Iowa Caucuses Rick Santorum “won” by 8 votes. We know he did not because some votes were misreported on caucus night and Romney did NOT get the biggest vote. Oh who cares! I tried to get some of the media to talk about that here in New Hampshire where I am covering the primary (and where I have a second home and spend a lot of time) and doing some research for my classes and book. “Iowa was yesterday” one well-known reporter said.
Okay then lets look at New Hampshire.
Mitt Romney is the local boy, former governor of Mass and a homeowner in New Hampshire. He has been way ahead and no one wanted to take him on but finally in the two last debates even Rick Perry decided to.
Poll - Friday January 6, 2011
“Texas congressman is polling second in New Hampshire at 18 percent — but he is trailing behind front-runner Mitt Romney who has 42 percent of the vote, in a Rasmussen Report poll. The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday.”
The Rasmussen poll also reports:
• Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum has 13 percent.
• Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has 12 percent.
• Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has 8 percent.
• Texas Governor Rick Perry is just about falling off the Granite State map with 1 percent.
New Poll - Sunday, January 8, 2012
Romney 35, Paul 20, Santorum 8, Huntsman 11, Gingrich 9, Perry 1
What will New Hampshire voters do? The tracking poll shows Romney sliding. Is this Iowa roller coaster? If Romney does not get 40% will that be a loss and the winner is whoever comes in a (strong) second?
And New Hampshire is where Romney is the Homeboy.
Ah but all the polls suggest that Romney will ultimately win anyway. One of my New Hampshire Republican friends said today, “This has the feel of an inevitable and painful surgery even while taking some medication in the meantime that’s supposed to cure the ill and make surgery unnecessary!”
Wow! I guess then maybe Romney is “the chosen one” and not Ron Paul who has been using that biblical reference in his advertisements.
I hate being an analyst! These voters in polls are not behaving themselves and being consistent. It’s not fair to us. They can’t keep changing their minds and making us crazy guessing what surprise the next poll will have.
On the other hand it’s very revealing of the division and uncertainty in the GOP that likely voters are so uncertain of who will best represent them and their party. It really is a remarkable political season.
Anyway, Romney will be in big doo doo when he has to make public his income tax returns. If the media will ever actually ask for that! Actually, South Carolina will be an interesting contest because as the first Southern primary where Newt Gingrich is presumably the local “homeboy.”
So then the question is whether Ron Paul supporters will vote for any other GOP candidate – will they turn out for Mitt Romney or just stay at home? Or maybe they will write in Ron Paul.
Steffen W. Schmidt is a University Professor of Political Science and Public Policy (also Coastal Zone Management) at Iowa State University, an affiliate of Nova Oceanographic Center, the author of 11 books, he has more than 40 years analyzing the Iowa Caucuses, is a Des Moines Register blogger, a CNN en Español analyst and commentator and is the Chief Political Correspondent of InsiderIowa.com.